On September 18, 2025 the Australia’s Federal Labor Government released its policy framework to achieve its 2035 emissions target and path to net zero by 2050 – as it is required to do as signatory to the Paris 2015 Climate Agreement.
Details of the framework can be found at Setting our 2035 target and path to net zero
Predictably, the Liberal and National Party Coalition in opposition, and the Murdoch owned News Corp media outlets (newspapers and Sky News), were outraged and falling over each other to signal that outrage, and to shout about doomsday scenarios for Australia’s economy. The Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, for example, is cited on the ABC News Politics Blog saying:
the shadow cabinet has met and resolved it is “dead against” Labor’s 2035 emissions reduction target.
Ley says there is no detail in the government’s announcement about how much implementing the target will cost households and businesses.
“That’s not reasonable for households, for businesses, for the hard-working manufacturers in this country who want answers, and are seeing their electricity bills skyrocket,” Ley says.
She says emissions reductions under the government’s watch are flatlining and electricity costs are increasing.
“We will always fight for hard-working Australians, for their futures, and we know how much those futures depend on the household cost of electricity and for manufacturing the cost of energy,” she says.
On the same blog, Australia’s National Farmers Federation is cited in its strong support for the framework:
National Farmers Federation interim president Su McCluskey has welcomed the nationwide 2035 climate target set by the government.
McCluskey says it makes Australia a world leader in emissions reduction, and will open up a practical pathway to reducing emissions.
However, she says agriculture should be prioritised over renewable energy projects for land use in Australia to ensure food security.
“When we look at transmission lines going across land, we are not always having proper consultation, so that is a concern”.
“In terms of achieving pathways, we want to make sure it doesn’t come as a cost to farmers and rural and regional communities,” she says.
She says her organisation supports a nationwide aspiration to meet net zero, but doesn’t support sector based targets.
This is what climate politics continues to look like in Australia in 2025!
A number of our key concerns in the YPSFL relate to the ways in which the climate crisis, and the possibilities for sustainable, regenerative and just futures for young people, continue to be held hostage by the climate and culture wars in Australia and globally, and in which powerful actors seek to protect their own, largely financial, interests at the expense of the social, cultural and climate interests of current and future generations.
As a matter of record, and as a means to more widely circulate the evidence, sources and methodologies that produced the 2035 Emissions Targets, we present a comprehensive summary of that report below.
The Climate Change Authority’s 2035 Emissions Target report.
The policy framework was based in, and developed from, Australia’s Climate Change Authority’s 2035 Emissions Target report.
A copy of that report is available here.
2035 Targets Advice-CCA-September 2025
This blog summary was prepared with the assistance of Notebook LM
The Climate Change Authority’s 2035 Emissions Target report, titled “2035 Targets Advice,” was submitted to the Minister for Climate Change and Energy on September 12, 2025, in response to a request from July 21, 2023. The report provides independent, expert advice to inform Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2035. It is built on a rigorous methodology encompassing climate science, whole-of-economy modeling, sector-by-sector analysis, stakeholder engagement, geoeconomic insights, and expert deliberation.
The Authority recommends an emissions reduction target of 62–70% from 2005 levels by 2035, stating this represents Australia’s highest possible ambition, is achievable, and is in Australia’s national and economic interest. This target should be presented as Australia’s minimum commitment, with the Government aiming for the top of the range and not ruling out “overachievement”. The report is structured into four main parts, each addressing different aspects of the target and its implementation.
Here is an overview of each section:
Part 1: Context, Framework and Findings
Key Arguments:
Part 1 establishes the scientific imperative for urgent and ambitious action on climate change, highlighting that temperatures are rising and impacts are worsening globally and within Australia. The report stresses that a strong target provides clear direction amid uncertainty from geopolitical conflicts and economic shifts, and Australia can capitalize on its strengths in a low-carbon economy. The Authority’s recommended target of62–70% below 2005 levels by 2035, with a corresponding budget of 1,248–1,395 Mt CO2-e between 2031 and 2035, is presented as ambitious, achievable, and in Australia’s national interest. This range acknowledges future uncertainties but emphasizes the need for decisive action.
Sources Drawn On:
Climate Science:
The report draws on peer-reviewed scientific literature and expert reports. For instance, it cites Copernicus for global temperature records, stating “Last year was the world’s hottest on record, with the global average temperature reaching more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels for the first time (Copernicus, 2025a)”. It also uses Earth System Science Data for greenhouse gas concentrations and global carbon budgets and NOAA for temperature anomaly data.
Climate Impacts in Australia:
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and CSIRO are cited for the 2024 State of the Climate Report, noting “Australia’s land temperatures have warmed by an average of 1.51 °C since 1910, leading to extreme weather events like heatwaves, fires and wild storms becoming more severe and happening more often, and the consequences are escalating (Figure 4)”. Other sources like the Insurance Council of Australia, ANU ICEDS, and the IPCC are used to detail physical impacts.
Methodology:
The report explains its “5-part mixed methods approach” [128, Figure 7], which includes macroeconomic modeling commissioned from CSIRO, stakeholder engagement with “565 formal submissions” and “more than 500 direct engagements”, and geoeconomic analysis. The report states: “The Authority’s advice is built on a rigorous methodology that starts with climate science and extends through whole-of-economy modelling, sector-by-sector analysis, deep engagement with stakeholders, insights from geoeconomics, and structured expert deliberation, ensuring its recommendations are robust and practical”.
Legal Basis:
The report is delivered “in accordance with section 15 of the Climate Change Act 2022” and considers “the Paris Agreement, the requirements under the Climate Change Act, and principles of environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, equity and other considerations set out in the Climate Change Authority Act (see Appendix A)”. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion on state obligations regarding climate change is also noted [Box 1, 108].
Identified Strategies:
- Target Setting: Recommend a 62–70% emissions reduction target by 2035, to be presented as a minimum commitment while aiming for the top of the range.
- Holistic Assessment: Employ a mixed-methods approach to ensure the target is ambitious yet achievable, considering scientific, economic, social, and geopolitical factors.
- International Contribution: Complement domestic emission reductions with “offshore contributions” like exporting green products, supporting other nations’ decarbonisation, and climate finance [54, 122, 135, Figure 8].
Challenges and Opportunities:
Challenges:
Escalating climate impacts (heatwaves, droughts, floods, coral bleaching). Geopolitical conflicts, trade tensions, supply chain constraints, and social unrest creating a volatile backdrop. Technological readiness, costs, and the pace and scale of change required for deep decarbonisation. The energy intensity of emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) [148, Box 3].
Opportunities:
Australia’s abundance of wind, solar, and critical mineral resources to drive a low-carbon economy. The transition to clean energy as an economic growth opportunity rather than a burden. The chance to lead global climate action and foster decarbonisation deals at COP31. Attracting capital, capability, and innovation potentially displaced by policy shifts in other countries.
Part 2: Implementation Pathways
Key Arguments:
Part 2 argues that technologies already exist to achieve Australia’s recommended 2035 target. It emphasizes that meeting the national target requires collective action from governments, businesses, and consumers, with varied rates of decarbonisation across sectors due to differing opportunities and challenges. Foundational climate change policies are in place but require refinement, extension, and expansion to ensure timely and efficient implementation. State, territory, and local governments are critical enablers.
Sources Drawn On:
Sectoral Analysis:
Draws heavily on the Authority’s 2024 Sector Pathways Review (CCA, 2024c), stating “Our findings can be seen in Part 2 of this report and in our 2024 Sector Pathways Review”.
Electricity & Energy:
Cites AEMO’s 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP) for the “Step Change scenario” and the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) for projected residential electricity price falls.
Transport:
Uses IEA data for EV uptake in other countries, noting “over 90% of new vehicles sold in Norway in 2024 were EVs”. It also refers to the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications, Sport and the Arts (DITRDCA) for aviation sector expansion and Qantas for SAF commitments.
Industry & Waste:
Mentions ARENA for industrial heat processes and the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) for Safeguard Mechanism data and methane emissions.
Agriculture & Land:
Refers to ABARES for agricultural production data and CSIRO for soil carbon research. It notes “Methane-inhibiting feed supplements are a feasible option to address emissions from livestock, particularly in more intensive farming activities, such as dairy and feedlots (Beauchemin et al., 2022)”.
Policy and Governance:
Cites the Productivity Commission’s interim report on net zero transformation and the EPBC Act reforms. It also refers to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) for various policy initiatives.
Identified Strategies:
Whole-of-Economy Decarbonisation:
Technologies exist for all sectors, from renewables-based electricity (accelerating solar and wind deployment, transmission, storage), to electrification of transport and buildings, efficiency improvements in industry, mining, and agriculture, and increasing land-sector carbon removals.
Policy Enhancement:
Strengthen and expand existing policies like the Safeguard Mechanism, Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), and Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs). Simplify and expedite approval processes for clean energy projects.
Collective Action: Governments, businesses, and households must commit to action, with governments providing policy levers and corporations leading in supply chain decarbonisation. States and territories should set and implement their own ambitious targets.
Challenges and Opportunities:
Challenges:
Significant scale of transformation required, including more than doubling the decarbonisation rate and massive capacity scaling in the NEM. Barriers to deployment such as “lack of willingness to pay the ‘green premium’” for low-emission technologies, “slow and complicated development approval processes,” “lack of community support (referred to as ‘social licence’),” “constraints in supply chains,” and “workforce shortages”. Uncertainty around technology deployment and timing, such as green hydrogen’s challenges. High upfront costs for households and businesses.
Opportunities:
Economic growth and rising incomes alongside decarbonisation. Lower energy costs for householdsthrough renewables and electrification (e.g., 20% average household energy cost reduction, up to 70% for fully electrified homes). New jobs and opportunities in clean energy industries. Diversifying farm sector incomes through land-sector carbon removals. The potential for biochar as a promising carbon removal technology [Box 9, 231].
Part 3: Navigating Impacts and Opportunities
Key Arguments:
Part 3 highlights that Australia’s clean energy transition is an economic growth opportunity, not a burden. Early, coordinated action is crucial to avoid higher costs of delay and inaction, which include significant climate damages. The Australian economy is well-positioned for decarbonisation, with low-emissions service sectors forming a large part of GDP and cost-effective decarbonisation opportunities available. A just and inclusive transition for regions and communities dependent on emissions-intensive industries is essential for securing social license and maximizing the benefits.
Sources Drawn On:
Economic Impacts:
CSIRO modelling projects that “Australia’s economy could grow at 2.7% per year in pursuit of an emissions reduction target of 62–70% below 2005 levels by 2035”. The report also cites Deloitte Access Economics for estimated costs of unchecked climate change and EY Net Zero Centre on potential savings from clean technologies.
Socio-Economic Co-benefits: References CAHA and Puzzolo et al. for air quality and health benefits, and Doctors for the Environment Australia for mental health improvements from climate action.
Regional Transition: Mentions Climateworks Centre and Net Zero Economy Authority (NZEA) regarding regions reliant on emissions-intensive industries. It gives an example of the Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence [Box 12, 286], supported by DEWR and the Institute for Regional Futures.
Equity and First Nations: Cites JSA for workforce implications, the University of Melbourne for benefits of First Nations clean energy joint ventures, and the First Nations Clean Energy Network for specific projects [293, Box 13].
Identified Strategies:
Early and Coordinated Investment: Prioritize investment in renewable energy, storage, electrified industrial processes, zero-emissions transport, and energy-efficient buildings.
Regional Transition Plans: Develop “tailored regional transition plans” with targeted investment, coordinated planning, and inclusive, place-based strategies to mitigate risks and maximize growth opportunities.
Just Transition:
Implement policies to ensure a fair and inclusive transition, including investing in training and workforce development for new green industries [284, 287, Box 12], expanding employment for underrepresented groups, and designing structured benefit-sharing mechanisms.
First Nations Participation:
Foster genuine collaboration with First Nations communities in developing transition pathways and clean energy joint ventures, aligned with Closing the Gap goals [71, 290, 291, Box 13].
Addressing Disadvantage: Implement targeted policy interventions to ensure financially disadvantaged groups can access the benefits of the transition (e.g., building upgrades, low-emissions goods).
Challenges and Opportunities:
Challenges:
Rising costs of inaction from extreme weather disasters. Structural adjustment challenges for regionsdependent on emissions-intensive industries, where green industries may not replicate existing job numbers. Uneven distribution of transition costs and benefits across regions and households. Labour shortages in critical clean energy trades.
Opportunities:
Robust economic growth and rising national income during decarbonisation. Potential for over $300 billion annually in economic benefits from new green industries. First-mover advantages in emerging green export markets. Co-benefits such as improved air quality, better health outcomes, more resilient communities, and nature repair. New opportunities for farmers and First Nations communities.
Part 4: International Context and Insights
Key Arguments:
Part 4 asserts that the world is decarbonizing despite headwinds, creating a strategic opportunity for Australia to shift from a net exporter of emissions to a net exporter of abatement. An ambitious and “investable NDC” (Nationally Determined Contribution) is crucial for attracting investment and positioning Australia as a major exporter of low-emissions products. The report advocates for new forms of international cooperation, particularly “decarbonisation deals,” to align national targets with international partnerships, decarbonize supply chains, and accelerate global transition.
Sources Drawn On:
Global Decarbonisation Trends:
Cites BNEF for EV sales, Global Solar Council for solar capacity, and IEA for global clean tech investment and projected fossil fuel demand decline. It also refers to the UNFCCC for international commitments.
Major Economies’ Actions:
Highlights actions by the EU (legislated emissions goals, CBAM, Clean Industrial Deal), and China(renewables investment, manufacturing, EV uptake). It also notes targets from the UK and Japan.
US Policy Implications: Addresses the “winding back of US climate policies and investment measures”, referring to the US Congress and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and analysis from Rhodium Group. It notes, “On balance, the Authority’s analysis finds the opportunities for Australia to attract displaced capital, capability and innovation, and build new trade relationships, could offset any new risks to Australia’s ability to achieve a 62–70% target by 2035”.
Investable Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Trade: Draws on OECD and Energy Transitions Commission for the concept of investable NDCs, and EY and The Superpower Institute for estimates of Australia’s potential green export revenues.
International Partnerships: Lists various initiatives such as the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC), the Australia-Japan Partnership on Decarbonisation through Technology, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) Clean Economy Agreement. It also references DCCEEW for Australia’s Guarantee of Origin scheme.
Identified Strategies:
Shift to Abatement Exporter: Progressively transition Australia’s economy from exporting emissions-intensive products to exporting green products (e.g., green iron, hydrogen, critical minerals) that displace global emissions.
Investable NDC: Develop an NDC that signals strong policy intent and commitment, attracting international capital, talent, and innovation partners for low-carbon industries.
Decarbonisation Deals: Advocate for and establish new forms of international cooperation, such as bilateral or plurilateral “decarbonisation deals,” to coordinate emissions reductions across supply chains and leverage complementary strengths. This can include agreements for green iron-green steel production or abated LNG where captured carbon is returned for sequestration.
Climate Finance and Capacity Building: Increase official climate finance contributions and align international development aid with emissions reduction goals to support less developed countries.
Future Carbon Markets: While not relying on international offsets for the 2035 target, recognize their future role (ITMOs) as a risk reduction mechanism and for driving private finance into decarbonisation projects in developing countries, subject to a National Carbon Market Strategy.
Challenges and Opportunities:
Challenges: Global headwinds (geopolitical conflicts, inflation, trade wars). Potential negative impacts from US policy shifts, including reduced multilateral cooperation, trade barriers, and slower innovation. Dependence on fossil fuel exports creating exposure to declining global demand. Decarbonizing the Asian region, where energy demand is growing and fossil fuels still play a significant role. Managing down fossil fuel exports while maintaining energy security for trading partners. The “accounted for elsewhere” problem in carbon accounting for supply chain emissions.
Opportunities: Accelerating global transition driven by cost-competitive renewables and economic benefits. Australia’s unique advantages (abundant clean energy resources, critical minerals, trusted trading partner status) for developing green export industries. Attracting displaced green capital and innovation from other countries due to policy changes. Diversifying trade relationships and strengthening supply chains, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Climate finance for less developed countries to accelerate their decarbonisation. The Guarantee of Origin scheme offering a credible basis for tracking emissions intensity of exports. New forms of cooperation can align trade and climate goals, drive sectoral decarbonisation, and achieve deeper cuts than countries could alone.